Five years after the forest fires, the summer of 2023 is predicted to be as hot as 2018, according to the European Long-Range Forecast by the ECMWF and the US Long-Range Forecast.
The summer of 2018 was unusually dry and hot across much of Europe. In Sweden, at least 50 forest fires broke out in July as a result of prolonged drought and persistent high temperatures. These were the largest forest fires in modern times, covering 25 000 hectares of forest. Around 7 000 off-road rescue operations were carried out as a result of the forest fires, and in many cases local rescue services received support from both national and international sources.
The right insights at the right time protect people and animals and save large material values of forest, land and houses from being lost. GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and remote sensing via satellite imagery are powerful tools for data collection, analysis and prioritization of fire response.
Up-to-date data that is updated over time provides emergency services, property owners, authorities and residents with the right information to plan, act and prioritize. This in turn saves time and money in a crisis situation.
With the help of remote sensing, we can analyze the ground's susceptibility to fire. The analysis combines different data sets from, among other things, land cover mapping to classify the fire susceptibility of vegetation for Sweden's surface.
The information is important as a planning basis to support decisions on risk management measures, preventive measures, planning of rescue operations or analysis and evaluation of fires.
Analysis of forest susceptibility to fire provides answers to questions such as
The results of the 2018 forest fires are still visible in a heat map made using satellite measurements of ground temperatures. Vegetation keeps the ground temperature down and the large forest areas where the forest has disappeared are clearly visible on the heat map.
Metria has carried out a national heat mapping on behalf of MSB. The map service is intended to be used for, among other things, community planning in municipalities' climate adaptation work, which will help them see how they can relate to warmer and cooler surfaces.
The mapping of the highest ground temperatures divided into different years over a 5-year period in Sweden can be used to identify specifically warm areas that can have a negative effect on society. During heat waves, hot surfaces can reach temperatures that can be harmful to the population.
The heat map service is available on MSB's website MSB Värmekarta (metria.se).
Read more about heat mapping here: National heat mapping on behalf of MSB - Metria